External Winter Storm Update from DESPP: January 2016

DESPP Facts and Figures Jan 2016 StormOccasionally we will share severe weather information consequential to public health, public safety and EMS response.

SOURCE: CT DESPP-EMHS

Click here for full DESPP Report and Map: DESPP External Winter Storm Update 1-22-16 at 115 PM

WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN CT…

LATEST COMPUTER MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE NORTH AGAIN WITH A VERY SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO THE SNOWFALL OVER CONNECTICUT…

The last model runs of the GFS, NAM and EURO model forecasts are in good agreement on the track however they are still not in good agreement on the amount of snowfall for Connecticut.  The NAM has more than twice the snowfall of either the EURO or GFS.  All three models are still showing a very narrow snowfall cutoff across Connecticut meaning that any slight change in the track will result in a very significant change in snowfall. 

The following forecast is based on a blend of all three models:  Light snow is forecast to spread from south to north across the state tomorrow morning between 6:00 – 10:00 AM.  The snow is forecast light to moderate in northern CT and moderate to heavy at times along the coast by late Saturday afternoon.  The snow is forecast to continue Saturday evening and begin tapering down around midnight.  The snow is forecast to end before dawn on Sunday.  The snow is forecast to be fairly dry and powdery.  The snow will be accompanied by strong Northeast winds gusting to 35 – 45 MPH at times.  Cold temperatures in the upper 20’s are also expected. 

Total snowfall predictions at this time range from 2” – 3” in northern CT, 3” – 6” in central CT and 6” – 10” along the coast.  Note: Very heavy snow with blizzard conditions are expected just to our south over Long Island and New York City.

Current Forecasted Impacts:

Travel Impact:   Saturday AM                  Saturday PM                 Sunday AM                   

                                 Minor                              Moderate                       Minor

Coastal Flooding:   Saturday AM                  Saturday PM                 Sunday AM

                                  Minor                              Moderate                       Minor

Overall Impact:   Minor to Moderate

Forecast Confidence:   Good Confidence for Track / Fair Confidence for Snowfall

 

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